Tuesday, 12 June 2012

The Danish Defence Industry: Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016

Danish defense expenditure expected to decrease at a CAGR of -3.04% from 2012 to 2016

During 2007 to 2011, Danish defense expenditure registered a CAGR of -1.32%, and in 2011 was valued at US$4.3 billion. Active participation in NATO and United Nations peacekeeping missions, counter-piracy operations and measures against potential terrorist threats stimulated expenditure during the review period (2007 to 2011).

Such factors are expected to drive defense expenditure at a limited pace throughout the forecast period (2012 to 2016), with spending likely to decrease at a CAGR of -3.04% to reach US$3.63 billion by 2016. The Danish defense budget stood at 1.2% of GDP in 2011, and is expected to decline to 0.9% of GDP by 2016 as the country’s GDP grows at a faster rate than its defense budget.

The capital expenditure allocation of the defense budget, which stood at an average of 24.2% during the review period (2007 to 2011), is estimated to increase to an average of 25% during the forecast period (2012 to 2016) as a result of Denmark’s ministry of defense’s (MoD) armed forces modernization plans. Personnel expenditure accounted for the highest revenue budget allocation, with an average of 68% of the total revenue budget during the review period and it is expected to increase, on average, 69% of the revenue budget during the forecast period (2012 to 2016).

Personnel expenditure consists primarily of remuneration for military forces. Key opportunities for the country are expected in areas such as self-propelled artillery vehicles, armored personnel carriers (APC), armored wrecker vehicles, guided multiple launch rocket system (GMLRS), and other armored vehicles, ship-based helicopters and advanced communication systems. The Danish Navy plans to acquire twelve MH-60R multi-mission helicopters and associated parts, equipment and logistical support from the US for an estimated US$2.0 billion, which is likely to improve the country's anti-submarine and surface warfare capability and provide improved search and rescue and anti-ship surveillance capability.

The country’s homeland security expenditure stood at US$3.5 billion in 2011, and is expected to register a CAGR of 1.82% during the forecast period (2012 to 2016) to reach US$3.6 billion by 2016. Danish homeland security expenditure is primarily driven by terrorism, espionage, drug trafficking and cyber crime, which are likely to be the key factors during the forecast period.

Imports and exports expected to be higher during the forecast period (2012 to 2016)
During 2007–2011, 56.4% of the country’s total defense imports came from the US and Sweden, as Denmark has signed a defense co-operation treaty with both these countries. Historically, the US has been the largest supplier of arms to Denmark, its share increased from 34% during 2007–2009 to 64% during 2009 alone. Armored vehicles, aircraft and sensors accounted for 78% of the country’s total arms imports during 2007–2011. The country’s defense exports are comparatively meager, although they showed moderate growth during 2007–2011, mainly supported by increased exports to Lithuania, Brunei and Singapore. During the forecast period (2012 to 2016), it is expected that the country’s defense exports will increase due to the MoD’s plans to spend more on modernization and acquiring advanced technology from offset contracts.

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