Monday, 14 May 2012

The US Defense Industry – Market Opportunities, Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016

The US is projected to spend US$3.3 trillion on its armed forces over the forecast period (2012–2016).
US defense expenditure is forecast to value US$670.9 billion in 2012, growing at a CAGR of 4.19% during the review period (2007–2011). However, due to the country's growing fiscal deficit, domestic military expenditure is expected to register a CAGR of 0.63% over the forecast period (2012–2016), to reach a value of US$688 billion by 2016.

Although the country’s total defense spending is likely to decrease, factors such as the potential nuclear threats posed by North Korea and Iran, modernization initiatives, ongoing military operations and strategies to maintain military supremacy and protect its allies will continue to drive the US defense budget. 
Cumulatively, the US is projected to spend US$3.3 trillion on its armed forces over the forecast period (2012–2016). During the review period (2007–2011), the US allocated 4.6% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. However, this figure is forecast to decline to 3.8% by 2016, due to increasing financial constraints as a consequence of the global financial crisis.

During the review period (2007–2011), capital expenditure accounted for the majority of the nation’s military spending. Overall, the US spent an average of 74% of its defense budget on capital expenses during this period, while an average of 26% was reserved for revenue expenditure. The share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget is expected to decline to an average of 66% over the forecast period (2012–2016) due to efforts to reduce procurement expenditure.

To counter the threats posed by global terrorist organizations, organized crime gangs and cross-border infiltration, the nation’s homeland security budget is forecast to reach US$57.8 billion by 2016. As the US seeks to enhance its aviation and border security, the demand for equipment relating to these categories will increase. Further opportunities are expected to arise as the US invests in communication systems, the modernization of its aviation, naval and land defense systems and the enhancement of its nuclear defense capabilities.

The US remained the largest arms exporter in the world during the review period (2007–2011).
US defense imports increased in 2009 due to an increase in the procurement of military hardware from foreign suppliers. This trend is likely to continue over the forecast period (2012–2016) as the nation focuses on collaborations with foreign OEMs and the modernization of its existing weapons systems. Despite possessing a highly developed defense industrial base, the nation partners with foreign defense firms such as EADS, Thales and BAE Systems in the manufacture of defense systems such as aircraft and missiles.

The UK, Canada and Switzerland emerged as the three largest arms suppliers to the US during 2005–2010, while aircraft, armored vehicles and artillery accounted for the majority of defense imports. During 2005–2010, the US emerged as the largest exporter of defense equipment in the world. Moreover, the nation is expected to dominate the global arms export market over the forecast period (2012–2016), due to the increasing defense budgets of a number of its allies, such as South Korea, Israel and Australia. The country possesses a diverse consumer base and, during the review period (2007–2011), South Korea emerged as the largest consumer of US-manufactured defense goods.

The US permits FDI in its defense sector.
The US encourages foreign direct investment (FDI) in its defense sector. However, investments thought to pose a risk to national security are barred using the Exon-Florio provision, which consists of three steps for reviewing proposed, or pending, foreign mergers, acquisitions or takeovers. According to this provision, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) conducts and submits a review on the foreign investment to the president. The president is then authorized to approve or ban the investment depending on whether it is determined to be a risk to national security. Additionally, the nation follows a set of government regulations known as the International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR) for controlling the import and export of defense-related articles and services on the United States Munitions List (UNSML). These regulations forbid the exchange of information and material pertaining to defense and military-related technologies with foreign nationals, organizations or government bodies, unless authorization from the Department of State is received.
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