Wednesday, 25 January 2012

The Future of Construction in Croatia to 2015: EU Integration and Infrastructure Investment to Stimulate Construction

The global financial crisis affected the Croatian economy badly, and its construction industry lost 6.0% in 2009 and a further 17.1% in 2010.

London, January 25, 2012 – Within the Croatian construction industry, infrastructure construction was the largest market in 2010, with a share of 48.6%. In terms of growth, residential construction was the fastest-growing market over the review period, with a CAGR of 4.56%. This was followed by industrial construction, with a CAGR of 3.26% (reference figure 1 below).
Croatia was one of the few emerging countries in Europe that failed to cope with the global crisis in 2009 and 2010. Despite conservative monetary policies and a well-capitalized banking and financial structure, the Croatian economy slumped in 2010 and the construction industry declined. Declining budget revenues and uncertainty about the pace of the economic recovery led to the government revising its budget three times. The construction industry depends largely on public-sector investments, with most projects coming from the government.

Croatia’s economy, as well as its construction sector, are expected to recover in 2011, albeit marginally. The economic recovery is, however, subject to uncertainty as the country has a high external debt that is coming to maturity in the short term. World Bank estimates put Croatia’s external debt at 87% of its GDP, as of mid-2009. This upcoming debt maturity and tight domestic and external financing conditions leave the Croatian economy with the difficult task of recording a notable recovery in 2011.

The Croatian construction industry grew at a CAGR of 0.25% in the review period. The global financial crisis affected the Croatian economy badly, and its construction industry lost 6.0% in 2009 and a further 17.1% in 2010. In 2009, the country’s credit markets remained frozen because of the government’s refinancing needs, and as a result were unable to provide any stimulus to the market.

The Croatian construction industry is expected to witness a marginal growth of 2.1% during 2010, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.13% over the forecast period. Growth is expected to be led primarily by the infrastructure construction market, which is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.36% during the forecast period. It has followed a similar trend to the European construction industry over the last few years, with smaller companies being able to adapt more easily to changing market conditions. As a result, there are growing numbers of small companies, while the number of large companies has dropped.

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